The State of Wales.

The choice . Union or Independence.

1 The Union.

Warning! This article is from the real world. Those readers, particularly Welsh Labour, with a reality denial disposition, may find the contents disturbing.

Austerity, cost of living crisis, catastrophic fuel cost, housing shortages, low wages, lower than average education standards, child poverty, health provision and social care in crisis.

This is Wales today.

It's not that Wales can't look after itself. It's not allowed to.

These problems are not a consequence of Independence, but of Wales' relationship with the UK.

From its place in the Union.

The causes of these problems may lie with Westminster

But they exist in Wales due to a compliant Welsh government and a passive Welsh public.

And there's more coming down the line. High interest rates, high inflation,  continuing high energy prices, more borrowing [ the costs of which Wales pays a share ] and there's nothing Wales can do about it. It's in the hands of the UK government..

Not just the present UK government. Wales was bottom of the pile under the Labour governments of Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and before them.

They will continue to be at the bottom of the pile, as long as they are part of the Union.

Delusional.

The First Minister, recognises the dire situation, but their solution is to seek a better deal within the ‘ Union ‘.

The problem with this, is that the Welsh public is suffering because the First Minister and his government are delusional.

Their obsession with The Union and its ability to solve the problems in Wales is based on very little actual evidence.

The reverse is in fact true.

Wales constitutional relationship with the UK, does not allow the Welsh government to grow the economy.

This  is conceded by the Silk Commission on Devolution. The Welsh government is limited to distributing a given grant allocation.

Welsh Labour’s answer to this, is to Change the Union, Delusional or what.

Wales doesn't count in this bigger picture.

It is less than 5% of the UK population and 5% of the UK economy.

It doesn't have any influence.

It doesn't have any bargaining power.

It's England that counts.  It's their 85% of the economy that has to function [ although not very well ] and their 85% of the UK population that has to be appeased..

That's not going to change. Whatever type of federal system is envisaged. England, as a nation, will dominate the UK and they are not going to concede the fundamentals of that.

As for any notion that Wales can get a larger financial share of the UK pot. Delusional. 

There is no more money. The UK is broke, living on borrowed money and huge debt and that won't change anytime soon.

So the regions of England, or maybe the other nations will volunteer to have less so that Wales could have more. A lot more to meet its needs. Delusional

Or maybe Wales will be given special borrowing rights to meet its needs, even though it will increase the UK debt. Delusional.

Mark Drakeford, in the introduction of one of the many papers on the subject states.

The Welsh government believes that the partnership of nations, when it works well, is good for Wales.

I believe that we all benefit from the pooling of our resources, the values we hold in common and our shared history of social progress . Our differences when recognised and treated with respect are part of our collective strength.

The result of the election in May…….was an unambiguous rejection of either abolishing devolution or to take Wakes out of the UK.

It was an endorsement of Welsh Labour policy of strong entrenched devolution in a reformed and truly united United Kingdom.

His imagination now in overdrive, he describes the United Kingdom as A voluntary association of nations, indeed sovereign nations, as the UK is formed by A joint project based on the pooling of sovereignty for agreed joint purposes.

Sovereignty is now located in 4 different legislatures.  

The future relationship is to be based on the UK giving up its parliamentary sovereignty in favour of some, as yet unspecified, popular sovereignty,. [ not in our lifetimes ].

I think that here a bit of honesty is overdue.

Mr Drakeford argued that the 2021 Senedd election was an ‘ unambiguous ‘ rejection  of Independence and an endorsement of Welsh Labour policy.

It was not. 

The success of Welsh Labour was almost entirely due to Covid and the perception that Mr Drakeford in particular had handled it well.

It was a vote of a public struggling to understand and get through a frightening experience.

Mr Drakeford himself acknowledged this.

In an interview with the BBC following the election, he states.

Labour’s response to the pandemic helped the party retain power.

People felt safe in Wales and it was a strong theme in the election

That's the problem of living in a shed for so long, you get selective memory..

Mick Antinowi, a senior Welsh government minister, stated in an article in the Tribune.

Welsh Labour’s victory was undoubtedly linked to the successful way that Mark Drakeford and his government have handled the Covid pandemic……

Less than 47% of the Welsh public voted in that election and of those less than 39%  supported Welsh Labour.

Not then, unambiguous support of Welsh Labour policy or a rejection of Independence. by the Welsh public.

Indeed prior to Covid, Welsh Labour policies were in very real danger of rejection, with polls and commentators overwhelmingly predicting significant losses of seats in the election.

Then along came Covid as Welsh Labours election saviour. 

So to the comfort blanket. The Union.

The Constitutional Commission is the latest attempt to persuade the Welsh public that Better Together is best.

This despite the evidence to the contrary.

Welsh Labours answers to the many issues lies ' Reforming our Union '.

Welsh Labour's Plan

Two editions of that..

And a contribution document, from what is quaintly called Radical Federalism and its We the People.

Now Radical Federalism isn't quite the radical movement that its title might infer.

It is in fact a senior Welsh government minister aided by a handful of past Welsh Labour worthies. [ or is it worthies from the past ].

All these documents argue for remaining in the Union,

The common feature with each, is that none actually show the advantages. How Wales is better off belonging to this Union.

They are also based on a Welsh Labour myth.

Contrary to their argument and Mark Drakeford's assertions, Wales is not a sovereign state. Nor is the relationship voluntary.

Wales constitutional relationship is a statutory one. An act of the UK parliament.

Wales is limited by the powers contained within the Act.

It can be changed, reduced or even abolished by act of the UK parliament

There might be a stamping of his feet, but it wouldn't alter a thing.

The UK parliament is sovereign. Wales is not.

Nor is the relationship voluntary. If it were Wales could walk away from the UK at any time of its choosing.

Wales would not have to tolerate the excesses of Westminster.

But it can't and it does.

This so-called pooling of resources presumably means that water and energy goes from Wales to England and Wales gets in return ?

Common culture, shared history, better together,  nothing that can be quantified, nothing concrete, just waffle.  Waffle that disguises the lack of substance.

They talk of reforming the UK, but give no clue how its to be done,

Radical Federalism seems to rely heavily on what they believe  is a more sympathetic UK Labour formed government, 

Thereafter will be the setting up of a ‘ Constitution Convention ‘.

Gordon Brown will be in charge of that.

Then there will be agreement on how the federal system will work.[  In your dreams ].

After that will come the awakening.  For Kier Starmers vision of a ‘ Federal UK ‘ is quite different. His publicly stated position [ interview to Daily Record ] , is that the Nations of the UK have quite enough powers and his intention is to elevate the English regions in this federal arrangement.

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In its time scale their ‘ We the People’,  will run the Hundred Year Wars pretty close.

Mr Drakefords Reforming the Union is a bit of a mystery.  He tells us what he wants, but no clue  on how it is to be achieved.

He has a wish list [ Proposals they are called ]. The fact that it may be an entirely different vision than the other participants,  does not seem to have registered..

The vision he is offering cannot be debated or properly reviewed. It has no substance.

Expecting England to give up parliamentary sovereignty, which they control, for some form of ‘ popular ‘ sovereignty, which they won't, is some miraculous ask.

Sein Fein who are becoming dominant in N Ireland, are not going to participate in any form of Union.

As for Scotland, the SNP are interpreting Mark Drakefords remarks, not as a case for reform, but as further justification for Independence.

So it's on to Edition 3 and 4, or maybe wait for inspiration from the Constitution Commission,

Is Wales the priority?

Even Mr Drakefords most ambitious wish, [ Proposal ], still leaves financial and primary legislation control with the UK government, together with high spending and contentious areas of defence, international affairs and trade.

This will leave Wales still unable to reach its full potential, [ which would maximise benefits for its people ] but still committed to high spending in UK wide matters.

But of course it's the Save the Union that matters.

Mr Drakeford makes reference to the situation in N. Ireland,  stating that although he hopes that in a referendum, which they are entitled to, they will vote to stay in the Union. The choice however, he states,  must be entirely with the electorate.

If only he had the same view with regard to Wales.

Indeed the whole exercise, including the present Constitution Commission, is designed more towards the interests of preserving the Union, than it is in the interest of Wales.

The emphasis, the authority he relies on for support, all are concerned primarily with the fear of the Union disintegrating.

Indeed to view the leader of a Welsh socialist party using the work of a House of Lords committee as support for his Unionist stance is bizarre.

Mark Drakeford tells us that he is a lifelong believer in the Union.

Very enlightening.  But then, it shouldn't be about Mark Drakeford nor should it cloud the judgement on the best arrangement for Wales.

He says that ‘ at its best ‘ the Union is good for Wales.

For those of us struggling to find any, a few examples may help ease the pain.

However the longer their self indulgence in this baseless dogma continues, and it does under the present First Minister, the longer it condemns the Welsh people to further, needless, prolonged suffering.

So When the UK comes crashing down and the other nations put into place their prepared routes to self-government, perhaps Welsh Labour will produce another document. They could title it.

Wales. Life as an English County Council.

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